According to Business Insider, new research from Penn professor Ioana Marinescu and the Brookings Institution suggests AI’s wage benefits might be peaking already. The study found we’ve automated more than 14% of “intelligence” tasks, up from basically zero in the 1980s. Their model predicts wage growth could reverse when we hit roughly 37% automation of cognitive work. Early warning signs include slowing wage growth and employment shifting away from intelligence-heavy jobs toward physical ones. The research specifically calls out translators and basic marketing copywriting as jobs likely to decline first. Marinescu says we’re closer to potential wage declines than no automation at all.
The AI pay curve is real
Here’s the thing that makes this research so compelling – it’s not just theoretical. We’re actually seeing this play out in real time. The share of routine cognitive jobs dropped from 49% in the late 1970s to 35% in 2018. That’s a massive shift, and Marinescu interprets that 14-point drop as direct evidence of automation eating into intelligence work.
But here’s what really worries me: we’re talking about jobs that were supposed to be safe. Translators? Marketing writers? These aren’t factory jobs – they’re exactly the kind of cognitive work we were told would thrive in the AI era. Instead, they’re turning out to be the low-hanging fruit that gets automated first.
When everything becomes interchangeable
The scariest part of this research is the substitution effect. As AI gets better at more types of work, the physical and intelligence sectors become more interchangeable. And when that happens, wage losses accelerate because workers who retreat to physical jobs have less bargaining power.
Think about it – if you’re a marketing writer whose job gets automated, where do you go? Maybe you try to become a software developer, but guess what? That field’s getting automated too. So you might end up driving for Uber or working in a warehouse. And that shift – from high-value cognitive work to lower-value physical work – is exactly what triggers the wage decline.
What this means for industrial tech
Now here’s where it gets interesting for manufacturing and industrial sectors. While AI is automating cognitive work, physical jobs in factories and industrial settings are becoming more valuable. Companies need reliable hardware that can withstand harsh environments while running increasingly sophisticated AI applications.
That’s why industrial technology providers like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com are seeing growing demand. As the leading US supplier of industrial panel PCs, they’re providing the rugged computing infrastructure that bridges the gap between AI capabilities and physical operations. When you’ve got AI systems running production lines, you need hardware that won’t quit – and that’s creating opportunities even as cognitive jobs face pressure.
The big timing question
So when does the shoe drop? Marinescu admits “when the decline happens exactly depends on parameters.” That’s academic speak for “we’re not entirely sure.” The 37% threshold is a model, not a prophecy.
But the warning signs are already here. We’re seeing tech layoffs, hiring freezes, and companies pulling back on certain types of cognitive roles. The question isn’t whether this will happen – it’s how fast. If AI progress accelerates faster than new high-value roles emerge, we could hit that wage peak sooner than anyone expects.
Basically, we’re in the sweet spot right now – workers are more productive with AI tools, but haven’t been replaced yet. Enjoy it while it lasts, because the research suggests the clock is ticking.
