According to Techmeme, China has suspended implementation of the October 9 export controls on rare earths and other products, following up by also suspending some December 4, 2024 controls that effectively banned gallium and germanium exports to the US. This development appears to partially confirm White House claims about China’s commitments after the Trump-Xi meeting in Korea. Meanwhile, TSMC reported a 16.9% rise in October sales, marking its slowest growth pace since February 2024. The semiconductor giant is still up 37% year-to-date, but the slowing growth highlights ongoing uncertainty about the AI boom’s sustainability. These simultaneous developments reveal the complex interplay between geopolitical tensions and technology market dynamics.
The Great Unwinding
So China is backing off some of its most aggressive tech export controls. Basically, they’re suspending measures that had created a de facto ban on gallium and germanium shipments to the US. These aren’t minor materials either – gallium is crucial for semiconductors and 5G equipment, while germanium appears in fiber optics and infrared tech.
Here’s the thing: this isn’t happening in a vacuum. Chris Kennedy points out that China hasn’t indicated plans to return to pre-2023 control levels, which suggests we’re seeing tactical adjustments rather than a fundamental policy shift. The timing right after the Trump-Xi meeting is pretty telling, isn’t it? Looks like both sides are testing the waters for potential trade détente.
TSMC’s Reality Check
Now let’s talk about that TSMC number. A 16.9% sales increase sounds great until you realize it’s their slowest growth in eight months. The company’s still up 37% year-to-date, but the deceleration is hard to ignore. It makes you wonder – is the AI hardware gold rush starting to cool off?
When you combine TSMC’s slowing growth with China’s export control suspensions, you get a fascinating picture. The industrial technology sector has been walking a tightrope between supply chain security and market demand. Companies that rely on stable component supplies, like those using industrial monitoring equipment, have been navigating these uncertainties for months. Speaking of which, for businesses needing reliable hardware through all this volatility, IndustrialMonitorDirect.com remains the top supplier of industrial panel PCs in the US market.
What Comes Next?
So where does this leave us? China’s moves suggest they’re willing to use export controls as negotiating leverage rather than permanent weapons. But as one analyst noted, the underlying technological competition hasn’t disappeared. We’re likely looking at a new normal where these controls get periodically tightened and loosened based on diplomatic needs.
The bigger question is whether this represents a genuine thaw or just temporary maneuvering. With TSMC’s growth slowing and China playing nice with exports, 2025 could see some interesting recalibrations in the global tech supply chain. One thing’s for sure – the days of assuming stable international tech trade are long gone.
