Significant Emissions Gap Discovered
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are producing substantially higher emissions than officially reported, according to reports from Brussels-based non-profit Transport & Environment. Researchers studying hundreds of thousands of European cars registered between 2021 and 2023 found that previous assumptions by regulators like the European Union dramatically underestimated real-world carbon output.
While official EU estimates suggested PHEVs emitted 75% less carbon than conventional vehicles, the new analysis indicates the actual reduction is just 19%. “I think it’s quite a scandal to have this gap between real world and official data,” study co-author Yoann Gimbert told reporters. The discrepancy has been widening over time, with PHEVs emitting 3.5 times official estimates in 2021 and nearly five times by 2023.
Utility Factor Miscalculation
The research identifies several factors contributing to the emissions gap, primarily centered around how drivers actually use their vehicles. Sources indicate that European plug-in hybrid owners might not be incentivized to drive in electric mode due to limitations like lack of fast charging capability or relatively lower power of the electric motor.
This behavioral pattern is reflected in what researchers call “the utility factor” – the ratio of miles traveled in electric mode versus total distance. Official EU estimates assumed PHEVs would operate in electric mode over 84% of the time, but the study found the actual figure was just 27%. Even accounting for this factor, analysts suggest a significant gap remains because plug-in hybrids are never fully electric.
Combustion Engine Continues Operating
The report states that even when operating in electric mode, PHEVs continue to rely partially on their internal combustion engines. Researchers found that these vehicles are not designed to operate fully in electric mode, with the combustion engine providing significant additional power during acceleration, high-speed driving, or uphill travel.
“It’s actually 68 grams of CO2 per kilometer in electric mode, instead of being zero emission,” Gimbert explained. This figure is nine times higher than the 8 grams per kilometer estimated by EU methodology. “That’s something that is often not really expected by consumers,” he added. The findings suggest that hybrid electric vehicles of this type frequently rely on combustion engines to an extent that makes their emissions comparable to many conventional hybrids or petrol cars.
Regulatory and Industry Implications
The EU has announced corrections to its utility factor measurements and plans a comprehensive review of its carbon emissions standards for cars next year. Researchers suggest these corrections represent a good start but note that real-world emissions would still remain 18% higher than official figures without a full standards review.
According to the analysis, the German Association of the Automotive Industry is lobbying to cancel the proposed corrections and maintain current methodology. The research indicates that underestimation of PHEV emissions has helped major automakers avoid approximately €5 billion in fines between 2021 and 2023 under the EU’s strict fleet-average carbon emissions targets. If industry lobbying succeeds, analysts project it could result in a 64% increase in carbon emissions by 2050 under current regulations.
Broader Market Context
The emissions findings emerge as transportation energy trends show shifting consumer preferences. While European regulators grapple with emissions standards, American consumers are reportedly growing less interested in electric vehicles as prices soar, particularly without electric vehicle tax credits. Industry observers suggest consumers might show increased interest in hybrids and plug-in hybrids as pure electric vehicle demand wanes.
However, preliminary data from earlier this year indicates that while demand for conventional hybrid cars is soaring, plug-in hybrid demand remains largely stagnant. The research from Transport & Environment, detailed in their report “Smoke Screen: The Growing PHEV Emissions Scandal”, concludes that current PHEV technology is not fitted for 100% emission reduction targets set for 2035.
This report comes alongside other industry developments including technology sector innovations, healthcare advancements, and energy company strategic evaluations.
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