Economy and TradingInternational Business and Trade

Why Wall Street Believes China Is Winning the Trump Trade War

Despite Trump’s tariff threats, China’s exports surged 8.3% in September as trade with Europe and Asia offset US declines. With control over 90% of rare earth minerals and falling export prices globally, China appears to be strengthening its position in the ongoing trade conflict.

Wall Street analysts are increasingly convinced that China is winning Trump’s trade war despite the president’s recent threat of 100% tariffs, with market reactions and trade data suggesting Beijing holds unexpected advantages in the ongoing economic conflict. Following Friday’s 2.71% S&P 500 Index plunge, futures rebounded strongly as investors bet Trump would ultimately retreat from his aggressive stance, according to recent analysis of market patterns.

China’s surprising export resilience

International Business and TradePolicy

China Rare Earth Controls Threaten Global Economy Access, Experts Warn

China’s new rare earth export controls give Beijing power to restrict global economic participation, according to former White House officials. The measures require licenses for products containing over 0.1% Chinese rare earths or using Chinese production technology, escalating trade tensions with the U.S.

China’s sweeping new export controls on rare earth elements represent more than just trade restrictions—they potentially give Beijing the power to exclude any nation from participating in the modern global economy, according to former White House advisor Dean Ball. The controls, announced by China’s commerce ministry and effective December 1, require foreign companies to obtain licenses for exporting products containing more than 0.1% Chinese rare earths or those manufactured using Chinese production technology.

Strategic Economic Leverage Through Rare Earth Dominance