Technical Pattern Suggests Potential Rebound
After underperforming U.S. markets for much of 2025, India‘s stock market may be positioned for a significant technical breakout, according to analysis from Fairlead Strategies. Reports indicate that the iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA), which has delivered only 3.44% year-to-date returns, has been forming a triangle pattern that typically precedes strong price movements when broken to the upside.
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Technical analyst Katie Stockton, working with Will Tamplin, reportedly identified that INDA has started the week above the triangle’s upper boundary near $54.50, setting up what analysts suggest could be a pending bullish breakout. The report states that confirmation would require two consecutive weekly closes above this level, which would represent a significant technical development for the ETF.
Key Resistance Levels and Momentum Indicators
Sources indicate that if the breakout is confirmed, it would trigger a weekly MACD “buy” signal with an initial price target near $59.50. The analysis reportedly shows that intermediate-term overbought conditions aren’t currently a concern, which is typical during triangle breakouts according to technical principles.
The report states that INDA has already cleared short-term resistance identified through the daily cloud model, supported by positive short-term momentum. This development, according to the analysis, increases the likelihood that the ETF could establish distance from long-term triangle resistance in the coming weeks. A near-term upside objective is reportedly identified near $55.90, which marked the June peak.
Relative Strength Against U.S. Markets
Analysis suggests the ratio of INDA to the S&P 500 Index confirmed an intermediate-term counter-trend ‘buy’ signal last week using Tom DeMark’s TD Combo® model. Sources indicate that a similar signal in late February preceded approximately two months of Indian stock outperformance relative to U.S. markets.
The current signal reportedly supports expectations for another eight weeks of INDA outperformance compared to the SPX. This potential shift comes amid broader industry developments in global markets and follows significant related innovations in investment technology.
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Risk Management Considerations
For investors considering long positions, the analysis reportedly emphasizes the importance of INDA remaining above its 200-day moving average for risk management purposes. Sources indicate that a break below this level would jeopardize the triangle pattern and potentially invalidate the bullish setup.
The technical perspective comes as markets navigate various challenges, including the type of recent technology issues that can affect trading platforms. Meanwhile, the methodology employed by Fairlead Strategies represents just one approach to market analysis among many competing market trends and investment philosophies.
Context and Historical Performance
According to reports, Indian equities were among the few markets that kept pace with U.S. performance from the 2020 corrective low through the end of 2024. However, 2025 has reportedly been an “off-cycle” year for India’s stock market until this potential technical catalyst emerged.
The analysis emphasizes that technical patterns don’t guarantee future performance and that investors should consider their individual circumstances before making investment decisions. The report reiterates standard disclosures that past performance doesn’t indicate future results and that securities investments involve risk to principal.
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